Break-Even Math: What Your First New Case Needs to Cover

To judge whether a marketing spend is expensive, divide the monthly cost by your average case value to find how many cases it takes to break even. For most criminal defense practices, that number is smaller than the anxiety around the spend would suggest.

A monthly marketing spend can feel expensive in isolation — a few hundred or a few thousand dollars is a real number to commit to. It stops feeling abstract once you calculate exactly how many cases it takes to cover.

What is the break-even formula?

Monthly marketing spend ÷ average case value = number of cases needed to break even.

If you're spending $600/month on a lead source and your average retained criminal defense case is worth $2,500, you need less than one case every four months just to break even — anything beyond that is straightforward return. Put that plainly next to the spend, and a number that felt significant on its own often turns out to be a low bar.

How should you calculate average case value?

This isn't just your typical flat fee. It should account for the mix of case types you actually take (a DUI and a more serious felony have very different values), any hourly work that extends beyond a flat fee, and a realistic view of how many engaged clients actually pay in full versus how many require payment plans or write-offs. Overestimating this number makes any spend look safer than it is; underestimating it makes good spend look questionable. A framework for how much a criminal defense case is worth by charge type helps keep the estimate honest.

Why does break-even beat asking "is this expensive?"

"Expensive" is a feeling, not a number, and feelings about spend are poorly correlated with whether the spend is actually a good deal. Break-even math replaces the feeling with a specific, falsifiable question: did this spend produce at least that many cases? If yes, it paid for itself and everything beyond break-even is margin. If no, that's useful information too — better than a vague sense that marketing "isn't really working."

How do you apply it going forward?

Run this calculation before committing to any new spend, not just after the fact. Once you have results, calculate your cost per acquired client and compare it with lead cost versus case value. The break-even check turns "should I try this" into "how many cases would this need to produce, and does that seem realistic given what I know about the source." That's a much easier question to reason about than a gut feeling about whether a monthly number is too high.

For a wider view of how many referrals it usually takes to land one client, see how many leads it takes to land one retained client. Run this math against current pricing before deciding what volume makes sense for your practice.